Identifying the dynamic contact network of infectious disease spread
نویسنده
چکیده
6 Pathogen propagation is a fundamental process that takes place through host contact networks. 7 While it has been possible to characterize contact networks of several human infectious diseases 8 (e.g., sexual contacts for HIV, physical proximity for measles), logistical difficulties and the high costs 9 of data collection makes network modeling of infectious diseases in animal populations particularly 10 difficult. In addition, limited knowledge about how pathogens transmit precludes an accurate 11 definition of network edges required for constructing networks of disease transmission. We 12 developed a new tool, INoDS (Identifying Networks of infectious Disease Spread), that utilizes 13 Bayesian inference to provide evidence towards the underlying contact network of an infectious 14 disease spread. We show that the tool accurately identifies the underlying contact network even 15 when the networks are partially sampled and information on disease spread is incomplete. We 16 next demonstrate the applicability of the tool in two real animal populations: bumble bees and 17 Australian sleepy lizards. The performance of INoDs in synthetic and complex empirical systems 18 highlights its role as an alternative approach to laboratory transmission experiments, in providing 19 epidemiological insights into novel and less known host-pathogen systems, and overcoming 20 common data-collection constraints. 21
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تاریخ انتشار 2017